Foreclosures; Another Shoe is Dropping

Currently, in the City of Pittsfield, MA, there are 190 properties in some stage of foreclosure; 69 are currently in default, 30 are Bank owned, 16 are awaiting a foreclosure sale date, and the rest are in some part of the process (such as sale completed but deed not yet recorded or waiting for the sale with a date set).

For a city the size of Boston, or Atlanta, or even Springfield, MA, that number might not be worthy of note, but in a city of 40,000, to have 190 HOMES in some state of being taken from the homeowner is alarming. What is more concerning is the fact that there is no action on the part of the city to assist those homeowners in trouble. There are no meetings inviting homeowners to learn how to protect their home which is probably their biggest investment; the local community college, which offers courses and seminars in all types of subjects, has no offerings to educate homeowners about how to avoid the common pitfalls that lead to defaults and foreclosure. There isn't even a hotline that is well publicized, that a homeowner in trouble can call to get emergency legal assistance/counseling.

What is most disturbing is that the situation in Pittsfield is not the exception, but the rule. This issue pervades the country and, yet, because we have moved to a new news cycle, gets no attention anymore. The stock market is nearing 10,000 again; the dollar is low so exports are high; oil is over $70/barrel but not too much; gold is over $1,015 per ounce but that is because of the weak dollar; inflation is under control; and the Federal Reserve is continuing to give the banks cheap money to lend. The fact that it isn't being loaned to consumers or small businesses also goes undetected.

We are facing a real housing crisis. As has been commented on and explained in earlier postings, the next wave of adjustable rate increases is about to hit - the so-called Option-Arms, were "prime" borrowers could get a mortgage, and pick a payment for the month. Well, that period of pick as you may is starting to change. Most had that scheme for 3-5 years. The 3 year period is beginning to end (2006-2008) was most of the activity, so we will start to see loans that have to have PRINCIPAL & INTEREST PAID each month for the remainder of the loan term (27 years generally). That will be coupled by a rate increase of 2%-3%, based on the contract (mortgage documents).

So, will the better qualified borrowers start to default and hit the statistics as a "property in foreclosure"? Not all of them but YES, many will! Keep in mind that many of these borrowers no longer have the jobs they did when they got the loan, or hours have been cut, or the second job is gone, or there is no overtime. This will start another decline in home prices and cycle of panic.

Mortgage lending has already slowed to a trickle of what it was. That is not all bad, but when people cannot refinance or buy a new home, even when they have a steady job and decent income, but only a 670 credit score (680 being the line between prime/regular and the evil sub-prime borrower) we have a major problem.

In many areas, local banks and credit unions are trying to fill the void, but the demand is greater than the supply of loans. And, many institutions have new financial requirements to meet per FDIC, OTS, OCC and the rest of the alphabet; the locals have little to lend on anything but the best prime loans.

One hidden factor regarding the recovery of home prices and the market: banks that have foreclosed on homes, many homes, are NOT putting them on the market for sale, hoping for a recovery in pricing and not wanting to flood the market and further depress prices by increasing the supply of "existing" homes beyond the demand.

So much for the good news!

The Real Toxic Assets - Derivatives (whatever they are)

This posting will begin a 3 part series, to be finished by week's end, where we try to make understandable the un-understandable. Obviously the topic continues to be the "Stimulus Package", TARP, TALF, and the latest entry into the lexicon of acronyms, the PPIFs. PPIF stands for "Public Private Investment Funds". These are going to be the repository of those evil and lurking "Toxic Assets".

(cartoon from The New York Times)

A short recap: - mortgages were sold that had the interest rate adjust ("ARMs"), on both prime and sub-prime borrowers, to the point that some homeowners could not pay the monthly payment. These, along with perfectly fine loans were then bundled together in $500,000,000 or larger pools, and sold to Wall Street firms which made them into saleable securities akin to a bond. They were then resold as investment quality bonds, in smaller pieces, to investors all over the Country and the world. After all, what could be safer than an investment, paying interest, that was backed by Home Mortgages. Everything was fine until the adjustments started to occur and delinquencies looked as if they would be greater than expected. The investments, Mortgage Backed Securities, "MBS", were no longer worth as much as everyone thought they were because of the fear of more defaults and foreclosures, so panic selling began, until no one would buy any of these MBSs. Because no one knew the exact value, IT WAS DECIDED, that the value would be ZERO, or something close to it and they became "Toxic Assets". (RECAP OVER)

The assets were no more toxic then than they were at the start. In reality, the true asset was the underlying collateral - home mortgages. How many would go to foreclosure and how much would be recovered was unknown, but there are a lot of percentages between 0% and 100% - none were used!! There were 2 hidden issues: 1. With the mortgages being bundled as MBSs and sold as bonds to investors (earlier posts please) no bank or lender or any one who sold them was at risk. The investors might lose some money, like they might on any corporate bond or a mutual fund, but the lenders were home free. 2. A little understood evil was waiting to steal the souls of all who succumbed to good interest rates - DERIVATIVES.

What is a "Derivative"? Simply put - a BET, a gamble that something will happen based on something else; like during the World Series, betting not on which team will win or lose but whether the score of both teams will be higher or lower than the number of strokes Tiger Woods takes in the first 3 holes of his current tournament. THIS STUFF REALLY HAPPENS!!! Here, it was a bet that mortgages would default in record numbers. It seemed like a safe bet to take, and had been for the past 50 years; mortgages had a more or less constant and predictable default/foreclosure rate.

Let's get an example that most of us understand more easily - LIFE INSURANCE. When you buy a life insurance policy, you are betting an insurance company that you will die before you have paid more in premiums than the policy will pay to your beneficiaries. The Insurance Company takes the BET, because they know that on average, very few policy holders dies before either paying in more than the death benefit, or simply let the policy lapse after many years of paying. The insurance company, having hundreds of thousands,or millions of other people buying and dying, have sophisticated mathematicians (actuaries they are called) who prepare statistics on the probability of someone dying.

For example, if you are healthy and 30 years old, and do not race cars, and want to buy a $25,000 policy, the company will say "fine" and charge you a modest monthly premium. They can do this because they have statistical proof that very few 30 year old healthy people die. If you are 70, the chances of death before paying a lot of premiums is far greater, so the payments are much higher.

REGARDLESS OF THE SITUATION, YOU ARE BETTING THE COMPANY YOU WILL DIE WHILE YOU ARE INSURED AND BEFORE YOU HAVE PAID A FORTUNE, AND THEY ARE BETTING THAT YOU WON'T. That is gambling/betting/buying chances... The company can do this because they sell hundreds of thousands of policies and the statistics prove them right enough of the time. Basically, you and hundreds of thousands of others pay premiums, and the Insurance Company pays relatively few claims. They get to keep the profit!

To be certain that the Company has guessed correctly, it will bet another and bigger insurance company to bet that the insurer might be wrong. The bigger company which has even more statistics takes the bet and collects easy money. It has bought a derivative - a bet not on the life of the insured, but a side bet on whether the first company will have to pay the claim. This second bet is DERIVED from the first bet -the insurance policy itself. It is equivalent to the bet on Tiger's golf game.

What would happen if a disease struck all of the 30-40 year olds and they died, leaving the older people only - the people who have less time to live (and pay premiums according to the math guys)? Easy - the company would not be able to pay all of the claims. The bigger company which had to pay the smaller company who issued the insurance policies might default. Both companies might go bankrupt. So, the bigger company bets with even bigger company etc. What happens is that there might be 7 bets that the 30-40 year olds will live long. If they don't, 7 companies have to pay and 7 companies might file bankruptcy.

Were any of the assumptions wrong? Yes and no. It was a first time event, all those young premium payers dying, but they did die. Would that make all policies bad no. It does point out that betting that a mortgage will go bad (OKAY CALL IT INSURING AGAINST IT GOING BAD) or any other such bet is fraught with potential disastrous problems. The biggest of these is the fact that there could be 5,6,7 or 100 bets on that 30 year old's life.

These DERIVATIVES, these side bets, are some of the main issues that "broke" A.I.G.

What happened in the financial markets that have left us with trillions in debt is next in this 3 part series.

Author's Copyright by Richard I. Isacoff, Esq., March 2009

rii@isacofflaw.com

http://www.isacofflaw.com/

Sub-Prime? The Next Generation! FHA? (really?)

SUB-PRIME - PREDATORY - LOANS LENDING - BAILOUT -FINANCIAL CRISIS


They're Baaack! Just when we thought it was safe to go into the wate.. no no no, I meant the mortgage market! This time, FHA loans are the mark.

With the drying-up (or is that drying-down?) of the credit and especially the mortgage market, as announced, the Federal government is trying to re-start the housing market. One way to do that is to use already existing programs, like VA, FHA, USDA Rural Home, etc. Each of these programs is very good at what it does, and with all three of them it is to make loans, specifically mortgage loans to current or existing homeowners.

There is always a catch - some mortgage brokers are committing the same kind of fraud with FHA loans as were prevalent with other loans, such as those made by IndyMacBank, Wells Fargo, Option One, Ameriquest et al. Mortgage applications and documentation is not meant to be an exercise in creative writing. Unfortunately too many mortgage originators do not understand that.

The tricks are the same -altering an application after the borrower has signed it so income can be added to make the loan more attractive to an underwriter. Getting someone in a Bank to falsify Verifications of Deposit or Verifications of Mortgage, also works well to fool the folks making the decisions. Having fake appraisals done, where the value is placed well above the market is another favorite. In June of 2008, the Massachusetts Attorney General announced that the principals of Direct Finance Corporation, which was licensed by the Division of Banks, and at least two employees of community banks were indicted for mortgage fraud and various other matters, for doing just those things.

FHA was too trusting of its originators because they were usually trustworthy. Once the "bad guys" lost the ability to do conventional non-agency loans, like to the lenders mentioned above, these middlemen/women just took the same techniques and applied them to the VA/FHA/USDA field. We might think that these groups would have been more vigilant but...

In the 1980s, while I was working with the Maryland S&L crisis, running failed S&Ls I came across a true story about mortgage fraud that seems both comical and sad now. There were two older women who had been in the mortgage business for years. Keep in mind, that in the mid 80s interest rates were in the mid teens, like 15% for a NORMAL residential mortgage rate.

These women worked with FHA and VA loans almost exclusively. To make a loan more appealing, they would alter an application, make up Verifications, change documents before, during and after closings. Remember, PCs were just getting started so the method was the comical (now) side. They had no fewer than 10 typewriters of different manufacture so they could match the type style. Additionally, they had several IBM Selectrics, the ones with the little interchangeable steel ball, so they could use a hundred different type faces and fonts. They were caught by chance and went to jail for several years (the sad part). Point is that the mortgage fraud business has always been alive and well.

Author's Copyright by Richard I. Isacoff, Esq - November 2008

http://www.isacofflaw.com/