Fiscal Cliff- We Survived the Fall - Now What??

If there was a real "fiscal" Cliff, at least three-quarters (¾) of Congress would have been thrown over into the abyss far below. Sorting out the facts from the political rhetoric and greed, we are quick to discover that this entire issue was created by Congress itself in 2012 because of a basic moral disconnect within Congress and a desire to stop the President’s re-election.

Congress was deadlocked within itself and with the President on the National Debt-Ceiling (IT'S BACK - NEXT POST - TRILLION DOLLAR COIN?) – that is the amount of money the Country is authorized to borrow; right now it’s about $16 trillion or $16,000,000,000,000. We had hit the limit a year ago when it was nearer to $14.5 trillion and the Republican controlled House of Representatives would not go along with raising the ceiling. The argument is that we, as a nation, already owe too much – that we are mortgaging our childrens’ futures. Congress with the White House decided to pass a law that would force a minimum of $1.2 trillion in cuts to Government agencies’ budgets across the boards. At the same time there’d be an increase in taxes for almost everyone, but especially the highest paid and wealthiest, unless an agreement was reached before January 1, 2013

The idea was to create such a nightmarish picture that Congress and the President (all being reasonable people) could come to a quick agreement to strike a balanced program. If there was no agreement, the law would go into effect and automatic cuts to Social Security, Food Stamps, Unemployment and other so-called Entitlement Programs would take effect and there would be an equal cut to defense and related spending. And there would be those tax increases. The technical term for this is Sequestration.

No wonder that for the sake of easy reference someone called the failure to reach an agreement a “Fiscal Cliff” because we would “fall” into a financial crisis that no one wanted nor about which anyone could predict the outcome. So the term FISCAL CLIFF was just shorthand for a very complex set of spending cuts and tax hikes that would go into effect at the stroke of midnight as the Times Square Ball dropped on 1/31/2012.

THE DETAILS (most of them anyway)

Enough background and theory: What does the agreement that was reached at 3 A.M. on Jan 1st and signed by the President, really mean to us – the rich, the poor, and the few in the middle?

1. Tax cuts, that had been passed in George Bush’s term will stay in effect except for persons earning more than $400,000 (couples $450,000) who will have those income tax cuts disappear. The top tax rate will jump from 35% to 39.6%. This is supposed to bring in $600 billion over 10 years **

2. The spending cuts to all of the entitlement programs and the defense industry won’t happen

3. Capital gains taxes, the tax paid on profits from the sale of stocks or any other investment will go up 33% from 15% to 20% if income is above the $400,000/$450,000 “safe” level. (I have yet to see the tax effects on business capital gains)

4. The Child Tax Credit, which would have expired will continue another 5 years

5. The Alternative Minimum Tax (a tax that’s calculated to be sure you don’t have too many tax breaks) will be adjusted so middle-middle class and below incomes won’t be affected**

6. UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS will be extended for the long-term unemployed for 1 year

7. The amount doctors are paid under Medicare WILL NOT be cut THIS YEAR by the threatened 27%. That would have caused many docs to stop taking Medicare and therefore Medicaid patients

8. The estate tax exemption, the level at which estates start to get taxed, will stay at $5.12 million but it will have an inflation adjustment in the future. Also, the top rate will move from 35% to 40% **

9. Itemized deductions will be limited for taxpayers making $250,000 or more ($300,000 for Joint Filers)

10. Businesses developing wind projects and doing certain research and development programs will receive the same tax credits they have had for an additional two years

11. Businesses, and this affects even small business, will be able to obtain bonus depreciation. Simply put , instead of being able to deduct 1/7th of the cost of a truck (depreciating value) each year for 7 years, the law may allow a two (2) year period which makes short-term investment in equipment more attractive.

** (These items are permanent changes, not needing further action)

THE “BACK-STORY” – Why this really happened

In the first paragraph there was a reference to a “moral disconnect” in Congress. The comment was not a slur but rather the key to most of the fighting. There are those who truly believe that as a Country we should always run with a balanced budget, like a business or a family would do. There are others who are as firm in the philosophy that it’s okay to incur debt that will take a long time to repay. That is the basis for one of the most basic on-going debates in economics.

In a deep recession, one caused by a collapse of a major segment of the economy (housing this time), you may not be able to reach a balanced budget. Even though it might be the best resolution, austerity, not spending, will dry out any ability for employment to get better, for purchases of goods to increase etc. Imagine asking everyone in your family to have a balanced budget within a year. That means that everyone would have to balance at essentially the same time. Well, so much for getting a short-term loan from Mom or Auntie or your favorite Uncle! Now imagine having every family and business in the Country to accomplish a balanced budget in a year – the same year.

There are others who believe that in financially dire times (now), to keep things from getting worse, the Government is equipped to borrow huge sums by selling bonds and spending money on projects to create jobs, to make lending/borrowing easier (thus the low interest rates) and a host of other measures. It’s like a “Texas Steel-Cage Death Match” between the two extremes. That is the real genesis of the dilemma. Well, and the politics of trying to win the presidency.

BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE!

It doesn’t really matter in the short run which side you are on – spend our way out and pay the bills later or cut spending to the bare bones and enter a true austerity program to pay everything faster. There is no ANSWER, there is no TRUTH in a social science which is what Economics really is. There are many views but we have to settle on a path to recovery, to solvency. If there is no agreement in two months, we get to go to another Fiscal Cliff or sorts but with an unimaginable drop-off: The DEBT CEILING. Will we pay our national debt and keep things running here at the same time, or will we default and become a deadbeat Country?

Author's Copyright by Richard I. Isacoff, Esq January, 2013
www.isacofflaw.com
isacofflaw@msn.com

We Got A Credit Line Increase

The Country is Saved. We Won't Default. We Won't Need the EU to Bail US Out! Hooray!!!

As I noted in a Tweet, if the U.S. defaulted and ended up in Bankruptcy, who would be the Trustee, the guardian of creditors like China? Luxembourg???

The entire situation is ridiculous. But, it wasn't so far-fetched (a default). Everyone was buying gold and platinum and silver and... As posted here earlier "How Many Grams of Fat Are There In An Ounce of Gold?", the idea being that gold is only worth what someone will trade for it. Well, we will not have to worry about that anymore. The Congress, meaning the Democrats, Republicans, and Tea Partyists, in both the House of Representatives and in the Senate, and the President have come up with the master-plan to avoid not being able to borrow. The amount the United States can borrow will be increased.

Foolish as it appeared (because of all of the 2012 election campaigning and "holier than thou" Tea Party drinkers; I mean why have a Tea Party and drink coffee? But they did forget the crumpets!), there was exposed a huge problem with our financial system.

Some basics and answers to questions:

1. How could we run out of money to pay bills? Well, we already have. We have used the equivalent of an home equity loan to get money for all of our annual needs. The difference is that we "sell" Treasury Bonds. That is a nice way of stating that we will agree to pay "X"% interest if someone/country lends us money. Granted the amounts are larger than you would need for siding on your house, but the concept is identical. The "Treasury Bonds" that you hear/read about are nothing more than IOUs given to whoever buys the bond.

2. What is the Debt Ceiling and how high is it. It is $14.7 trillion; that is $14,700,000,000,000. It is the amount the Country is allowed to "borrow" from other countries and "all of us". It is a constitutional matter. The Congress has to agree on the amount and then get the President's approval for the MAXIMUM amount of our loans. Congress is acting like a Bank's Loan Committee deciding whether the Bank's Customer (the Country) can repay it's loan.

Were did all of the money go? No one knows for sure and no one, even the GAO (General Accounting Office) can trace it. But we know that we spent money on several wars (2 still on-going); we STOPPED a world-wide depression by enacting the "Stimulus" packages; our States, cities and towns had their tax revenue supplemented by some of that $14.7T for schools, bridges, roads, housing (especially for the elderly); the world wide stock and securities markets did not crash because we paid to offset losses -AIG, Lehman, Ford, Chrysler, GM et al.

IN REALITY, WE SPENT MORE THAN WE EARNED. Tax revenues were too low, the wars were/still are sooo expensive, and we have been spending like we could just print more money (oops, we can and did!)

3. What is the "Deficit" - over-simplified but not by much - just as in any household, or business, the deficit is the NEGATIVE difference between what we spend and what we earn. The trade deficit is a bit different - that is the NEGATIVE difference between what we sell to foreign countries and what we buy from them. For a long time we have bought more than we have sold. WE ARE A NATION OF CONSUMERS.

Coupled with our penchant for buying is the fact that our "DOLLAR" has been strong for a long time in comparison to other countries' money. Simpler - our dollar was based on a stronger economy; more output and capability of manufacturing, inventing, building more than nearly all other countries. We were perceived as having the ability to produce 10, 15, 20, 50% MORE IF WE WANTED TO, AT ANY TIME - like right after the start of WWII. Doesn't do much good if no one is buying!

4. Why did it take so long to set a new limit? POLITICS - RE-ELECTION in 2012. That simple? YES. That doesn't mean that some of the 535 people in Congress did not really believe that our "bill" to others will cause the ruination of the Country. It could, but most likely won't. As these things are measured, we have a bill that is 62% of our Annual GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(GDP). That means that we OWE 2/3 of our county's TOTAL output of goods and services for a year.

Just think about paying 62% of your net/take home income for loans. That doesn't take into account food, utilities, cable, gasoline etc - all of the things that are monthly or annual expenses. For the Country, it's like only having 1/3 of the total amount the United States collects, for the payment of Medicaid, Food Stamps, Unemployment, Military pay, other government employees' pay, expenses for things like the Gulp/BP clean-up, and all other programs big and small.

Maybe now our elected officials can get back to business of running the Country - maybe they need a lesson in accounting - Remember Debits on the Left, Credits on the Right. Debits by the Window, Credits by the Door (from Accounting 101). OR we could buy 535 calculators and copies of Quicken

Author's Copyright by Richard I Isacoff, Esq, August 2011

rii@isacofflaw.com
http://www.isacofflaw.com

Better Now Or A Year Ago?

Now that all of the drama of the Goldman Sachs vs Congress (actually Sen. Carl Levin) is over, what did it all mean. More importantly, WHO CARES? (well, I actually do but it's my job to care).

The reality is that regardless of who caused the financial crisis most of us just want to know when it will end and how will we survive until it does. Will knowing what a "Synthetic Derivative" help? NO, and it's not something you add to your cars oil or take out of it for that matter! If the crisis is over, if we have turned the corner on the recession, if the economy is improving, why is the unemployment rate still at record or near record levels, after adjusting for those who have fallen off of the rolls because benefits ran out, and deducting the Census workers?

The answer is easy, well at least explainable, or at a minimum, less confusing than Synthetic Derivatives. The term "Recession" is a technical economic word that rarely intersects everyday life. It deals with the number of consecutive calendar quarters that the "gross domestic product' declines. And when most TV types discuss the economy getting better they are really talking about the stock market, which a world unto itself.

For real people - are you better or worse off financially than you were 1 year ago? That's far from scientific and can be misleading, but it isn't a bad way to gauge the problem.

Foreclosures are still way up. April's figures showed fewer foreclosure sales but more actual cases where the lender has actually taken possession of the properties it foreclosed against months ago. And, the number of borrowers in default is not leveling yet. And the modification programs are still not really working. And people have so little left from their paychecks that they cannot afford to file bankruptcy using a lawyer, or even a document preparer (which is worse than filing themselves anyway).

In my office, we are taking payments for months from clients who want the expertise of a lawyer but can only pay $50 or $100 per month. The extra part-time job is gone; the overtime hours aren't available. Money is tight.

HOWEVER, at this point it doesn't appear that "the economy" will get any worse. This may not help every individual but it is an indication that we may have bottomed. How long we stay down is any one's guess.

Synthetic Derivatives? Think of a fantasy sports league based on a fantasy sports league, based on a real sports league! - (Next time I will try to explain in fewer than 5000 words)

Author's Copyright by Richard I. Isacoff, Esq, May 2010
rii@isacofflaw.com
http://www.isacofflaw.com/

Foreclosures, Jobs, Bank Mergers, & What Retirement ?

As we approach the end of the year there are a number if issues we should keep in mind. All are important but at differing levels depending on our own circumstances

1. The Foreclosure Crisis is far from over. There are currently approximately 3.5 million homes in some stage of foreclosure. It is projected that 2010 will see another 3 million enter foreclosure (that's 6.5 million without any further economic deterioration). Keep in mind that this does not include mortgages in default, by even as much as 90 days, that have not been moved to the "F" status by the lender.

The Making Home Affordable Program ("MHA") is broken, probably beyond repair. Very few (less than 1% of the loans in the Trial Modification period) have made it to a permanent modification. Lenders are blaming borrowers for not sending in documents timely or for not making payments within the successive 30 day periods. True, the are a certain number of borrowers who will not be able to keep their homes because they could never have afforded it, or have had a life altering experience from which they cannot recover.

BUT, I have had to submit documents for 40% of my clients, for whom I am working the MHA program, 2, 3, and even 4 times; and sometimes Borrowers are promised coupons for payments, never get them, make a payment late and are disqualified from the program - this again from my personal experience as an attorney with knowledge of the MHA program, bankruptcy, mortgages, real estate conveyancing, finance and financial planning, money management, banking and economics.

2. Un-Employment and Under-Employment exceeds 14%. Add to that sobering figure the numbers of jobless who no longer have unemployment benefits and who have given up registering for jobs at the local State Agency, and we move to the 18%-20% range or 1 in 5 or 6 people in the eligible labor force. This does not help the foreclosure problem - it's hard to pay for your house with no job, or with receiving a cut in hours by 25%, or by getting a "new" job paying $11/hour instead of the $18/hr in the job just lost.

Un/under-employment doesn't help consumer spending either. People are spending less, especially for true discretionary items, like the new car, new television, new washing machine, extra pair of shoes, and eating out. That is bad for business profits which is bad for job creation or just job market stability. And it is not just the big stores that are suffering; in fact, they can weather the storm better than the mom and pop stores and small businesses nationwide. All of this leads to a further erosion in jobs and then another round of foreclosures, and then another bank failure and on and on.

3. In a mere 15 months there has been such a massive consolidation in the Banking and Finance sectors that 3 years ago the Justice Department would have been bringing anti-trust actions daily (yes, that is hyperbole but barely). How has this hurt? Try to get a loan from any non-local bank, especially if you have average credit individually or are a small business with no access to equity markets (selling stock for example) or public debt offerings (like corporate bonds).

So now we have businesses, under the gun because of a downturn in business which is caused by un/under-employment, which cannot get money to stay in business waiting for the economy to turn positive - thus another business failure. Or we have an individual who cannot convince his/her lender to modify a loan or refinance it (no cash out at closing, just a lower interest rate) because the bank finds the Borrower's credit does not meet the lender's NEW credit criteria.
Guess what? Another foreclosure! Oh, and by the way, each foreclosure tends to lower the values of homes around the foreclosed property, so equity evaporates making it impossible for the under-employed with an above-average but not stellar credit score to refinance because the loan-to-value ratio (amount of loan divided into the value of the house) is too high (greater then 70-80%).

4. The "golden years" of retirement? They may be gone for an entire generation who had investments in 401k plans, IRAs, and the stock market generally. Sure the markets are up in the sense that the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P indices are up from their lows, but have average people recovered their losses. Basically NO! When we hear "The stock market is up 24% from a year ago" (still 30+% below where it was before the crash) that means that the securities traders are making money and some large corporations are as well. Sure, some individuals' portfolios have gained back part of the loss but recovered? NO! And we still do not know about Social Security, or health care, or ....

Further, as discussed on NPR's show "Marketplace Money" this morning by Knight Kiplinger, editor-in-chief of one of the most respected financial publications, there is a new reality: People cannot depend on the equity in their homes for part of their retirement funding. His comments went on to state that "... now housing has returned to its rightful place, as a place you live. It is shelter; it is not an investment".

This is a major change in approach from what had been a belief held for decades by homeowners, and was part of the advice given by investment counselors/financial planners to their customers/clients. It went something like this: "With the yearly appreciation on your house being 5%, in 14 1/2 years the value will have doubled and the mortgage will be paid down by one-half, so you'll have plenty of equity when you sell to buy that nice condo by the beach".

Now we cannot plan to use the house we live in for retirement money - after 25 years and 5 refinances, but never beyond 80% of the house's value, we will be lucky to have the funds to pay off the then existing mortgage and have a few dollars left for? Certainly not the condo on the beach. Is that what has happened in the housing market and if so, what is being done to stop the further erosion of value, goes down every time there is a foreclosure in the area of your home.

We go back to the Mortgage meltdown, the continuing high un/under- employment, the rampant crimes committed by Wall Street mortgage securitizers, and our own use of our homes as the means to get money for vacations, a new car, a new porch or pool etc. When you get a Home Equity Line Of Credit ("HELOC") and it comes with a debit card to make using the credit line easier, we should have known something was not right. Paying for a cup of coffee with your house's equity? Maybe not that bad but...

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

More crucial is our attitude, the way we all believe this will turn out. There is growing despair among those hit hardest - those who have lost jobs and those who are losing homes. EMPLOYMENT is perhaps the biggest obstacle to overcome. If people are gainfully employed they can begin to recapture their lives. Then and only then there is the potential to save the home, or not worry about whether the heating bill should be paid or the electric bill; and the car payment?

After a sign that the job scene is getting better, people NEED to see and believe that the government is taking real steps to stop foreclosures. Earlier posts have discussed some of the ways the loans which have become securitized can be modified. That said, our current financial services (banking, brokerage, insurance) regulators like FDIC, Federal Reserve, Treasury Department must take action to force the lenders to modify those loans that already qualify for the MHA program. Lost documents, unreasonable deadlines given to borrowers, no clear instructions on where to send payments, an endless loop of telephone prompts without human intervention for 30-45 minutes, all have to stop.

Maybe the outcome of the foreclosures will be to create jobs with the companies that service the loans, inspect the properties, go to Court to evict you, and clean up the property to get the house ready for sale.

Prognosis? the patient, us, will live but what will be the quality of life?

Author's Copyright by Richard I. Isacoff, Esq, December 2009

http://www.isacofflaw.com/
rii@isacofflaw.com

Good News/Bad News - Is There a Difference?

Foreclosures are up 23% from the end of the 3rd quarter last year. Foreclosures are up 5% from the end of the second quarter this year. If the numbers continue, this year will have more foreclosures than any before. THAT'S THE GOOD NEWS!

With all of the money given (loaned) to banks, and with the likes of JPMorgan Chase having a profit for the last quarter of $3,600,000,000 ($3.6 Billion), having doubled the amount of money it has planned on for loan losses, you might think that there would be money for you to borrow to refinance your house (after all your credit is good ), or borrow for your business. WRONG - THINK AGAIN! Banks are bracing for the next wave of losses; commercial real estate mortgage backed securities failing because the loans that make up the securities are defaulting. Additionally, because of the financial crisis we are still in, the "normal" way of making loans will not work.

In the April 13th posting (and several others), the whole issue of securitization was explained. The basics: agree to buy a large number of mortgages so that the value, on paper, of what the security maker controls is huge, like $1 Billion. Rather than holding the loans in any Bank, and risking borrowers not paying the mortgage regularly, sell the loans in a package (pool) to investors on Wall Street; investors like mutual funds, individuals, pensions, and of course the Federal Government. So now the $1 Billion portfolio is owned by thousands of people, plans etc. The security eliminates the risk of loss for all of the banks involved in making the loans, because no bank owns one of the actual mortgages - not one. Investors, not lenders/banks, each own a small portion of the pool. Again, they own a security, that acts like a corporate bond, but not a mortgage.

Because of the recent losses and the enormous rise in foreclosures, no one wants to buy these mortgage-backed securities ("MBS"). If no one will buy them, then they will not be created, because the creator does not want to get stuck with a long-term investment (pooled mortgages). If they are not being created, the banks will not lend; even to good borrowers. THIS IS THE BAD NEWS.

There will be no real recovery until credit is available again. The government's mortgage lenders FannieMae and FreddieMac, FHA, have new and very strict guidelines. If you have a blemish on your credit report, NO LOAN.

Businesses use borrowed money all of the time to keep operations running, to buy new equipment, and to expand. If banks won't lend to them, the business shrinks and dies. More jobs are lost, and not just at that business. if people lose work, then they cannot spend money and other businesses fail. That is the cycle we are in for unemployment. And more unemployment means more defaults on mortgage payments, and that means more foreclosures.

The new Bank regulations that will require banks to keep more money set aside for bad loans, and the fact that only the Federal Government will buy the existing MBS and not new ones, means that Banks will not make loans, except to the very best customers. The noose gets tighter and tighter. The recent run-up of the stock market is not a reflection of consumers’ and "Main Street" types’ (us) confidence. The profits are being made by traders, Wall Street professionals, and companies like JPMorgan Chase.

So, the very kinds of investments, the MBS or pools of mortgages, that allowed the housing boon, has led us to the housing boom - it’s imploded. Breaking the cycle we are in will take time; actually a great deal of it

Foreclosures; Another Shoe is Dropping

Currently, in the City of Pittsfield, MA, there are 190 properties in some stage of foreclosure; 69 are currently in default, 30 are Bank owned, 16 are awaiting a foreclosure sale date, and the rest are in some part of the process (such as sale completed but deed not yet recorded or waiting for the sale with a date set).

For a city the size of Boston, or Atlanta, or even Springfield, MA, that number might not be worthy of note, but in a city of 40,000, to have 190 HOMES in some state of being taken from the homeowner is alarming. What is more concerning is the fact that there is no action on the part of the city to assist those homeowners in trouble. There are no meetings inviting homeowners to learn how to protect their home which is probably their biggest investment; the local community college, which offers courses and seminars in all types of subjects, has no offerings to educate homeowners about how to avoid the common pitfalls that lead to defaults and foreclosure. There isn't even a hotline that is well publicized, that a homeowner in trouble can call to get emergency legal assistance/counseling.

What is most disturbing is that the situation in Pittsfield is not the exception, but the rule. This issue pervades the country and, yet, because we have moved to a new news cycle, gets no attention anymore. The stock market is nearing 10,000 again; the dollar is low so exports are high; oil is over $70/barrel but not too much; gold is over $1,015 per ounce but that is because of the weak dollar; inflation is under control; and the Federal Reserve is continuing to give the banks cheap money to lend. The fact that it isn't being loaned to consumers or small businesses also goes undetected.

We are facing a real housing crisis. As has been commented on and explained in earlier postings, the next wave of adjustable rate increases is about to hit - the so-called Option-Arms, were "prime" borrowers could get a mortgage, and pick a payment for the month. Well, that period of pick as you may is starting to change. Most had that scheme for 3-5 years. The 3 year period is beginning to end (2006-2008) was most of the activity, so we will start to see loans that have to have PRINCIPAL & INTEREST PAID each month for the remainder of the loan term (27 years generally). That will be coupled by a rate increase of 2%-3%, based on the contract (mortgage documents).

So, will the better qualified borrowers start to default and hit the statistics as a "property in foreclosure"? Not all of them but YES, many will! Keep in mind that many of these borrowers no longer have the jobs they did when they got the loan, or hours have been cut, or the second job is gone, or there is no overtime. This will start another decline in home prices and cycle of panic.

Mortgage lending has already slowed to a trickle of what it was. That is not all bad, but when people cannot refinance or buy a new home, even when they have a steady job and decent income, but only a 670 credit score (680 being the line between prime/regular and the evil sub-prime borrower) we have a major problem.

In many areas, local banks and credit unions are trying to fill the void, but the demand is greater than the supply of loans. And, many institutions have new financial requirements to meet per FDIC, OTS, OCC and the rest of the alphabet; the locals have little to lend on anything but the best prime loans.

One hidden factor regarding the recovery of home prices and the market: banks that have foreclosed on homes, many homes, are NOT putting them on the market for sale, hoping for a recovery in pricing and not wanting to flood the market and further depress prices by increasing the supply of "existing" homes beyond the demand.

So much for the good news!

Making Homes Affordable? It's Not Working!!

In a report released by the "Making Homes Affordable Program", only 9% of those mortgages eligible (estimated) for a modification are in the process. Essentially the lenders, mortgage companies, loan servicers, ARE NOT doing their jobs.

The information through the end of July shows that of an estimated 2.7 million mortgages, all of which are 60 days+ delinquent, only 235,247 (actual) have been offered a modification or are in the process of obtaining one. This does not necessarily mean a change in all terms, but could be nothing more than the lender allowing 3 payments to be moved to the end of the loan term, but as a modification.

The lenders doing the best job are 1. Saxon 2. Aurora (small number of loans) 3. GMAC 4. JP Morgan Chase -all having in process 20% or more of the estimated eligible loans. CitiBank has 15% being worked on. BUT American Home Mortgage Servicing Inc (AHMSI) has done 0%, Wilshire 1%, Wachovia 2%, Select Portfolio 3%, Bank of America 4%, OCWEN 5%, and Wells Fargo and Citizens 6% each.

Who's fault is it - primarily the lenders/servicers. They never got ready for the program and they prefer to try to wait out the bad times, thinking, it seems, that suddenly the housing and finance markets will turn positive.

IT IS CRITICAL TO NOTE that once a borrower has submitted the necessary paperwork for a MHA Loan Modification, and has passed the initial screening (see below) FORECLOSURE PROCESS MUST STOP! - 1. home is your primary residence 2. currently employed or have other regular income 3. default caused by a hardship or there has been a drop in income or increase in expenses 4. your mortgage payment including principal interest, taxes and insurance is more than 31% of your monthly GROSS income, and 4. your loan was current at the start of 2009, you qualify for the full analysis. (Go to http://makinghomeaffordable.gov/modification_eligibility.html

If you meet the basics and have filed for a modification, and you then get a letter stating that the foreclosure process will continue during the evaluation, send a certified return receipt requested letter to the address to which you sent the documents, and state that the law requires them to STOP foreclosure proceedings.

If you are having a problem, call a qualified Bankruptcy attorney in your area (you can find one at www.nacba.org), or, contact your local Bar Association for a referral to an attorney working to stop foreclosures. In Massachusetts for example, you can contact the Massachusetts Fair Housing Center, or any of the local housing authorities for a referral.

The program is a reasonable one. I am having excellent results for my clients, but it requires a great deal of patience. As always, contact my office if you have a problem finding help.

Author's Copyright by Richard I. Isacoff, Esq, August, 2009

rii@isacofflaw.com

http://www.isacofflaw.com/

"Credit Default Swaps" - Insuring Against Oblivion

We were dealing the the issue of DERIVATIVES. Okay - So I put too much into the last posting. Let's start this one in the middle; without the preamble.

Let's get an example that most of us understand more easily - LIFE INSURANCE. When you buy a life insurance policy, you are betting an insurance company that you will die before you have paid more in premiums than the policy will pay to your beneficiaries. The Insurance Company takes the BET, because they know that on average, very few policy holders dies before either paying in more than the death benefit, or simply let the policy lapse after many years of paying. The insurance company, having hundreds of thousands,or millions of other people buying and dying, have sophisticated mathematicians (actuaries they are called) who prepare statistics on the probability of someone dying.

For example, if you are healthy and 30 years old, and do not race cars, and want to buy a $25,000 policy, the company will say "fine" and charge you a modest monthly premium. They can do this because they have statistical proof that very few 30 year old healthy people die. If you are 70, the chances of death before paying a lot of premiums is far greater, so the payments are much higher.

REGARDLESS OF THE SITUATION, YOU ARE BETTING THE COMPANY YOU WILL DIE WHILE YOU ARE INSURED AND BEFORE YOU HAVE PAID A FORTUNE, AND THEY ARE BETTING THAT YOU WON'T. That is gambling/betting/buying chances... The company can do this because they sell hundreds of thousands of policies and the statistics prove them right enough of the time. Basically, you and hundreds of thousands of others pay premiums, and the Insurance Company pays relatively few claims. They get to keep the profit!

To be certain that the Company has guessed correctly, it will bet another and bigger insurance company that the insurer might be wrong. The bigger company which has even more statistics takes the bet and collects easy money. It has bought a derivative - a bet not on the life of the insured, but a side bet on whether the first company will have to pay the claim. This second bet is DERIVED from the first bet -the insurance policy itself. It is equivalent to the bet on Tiger's golf game (see the prior post - great analogy & reading).

BUT, what would happen if a disease struck all of the 30-40 year olds and they died, leaving the older people only - the people who have less time to live (and pay premiums according to the math guys)? Easy - the company would not be able to pay all of the claims. The bigger company which had to pay the smaller company who issued the insurance policies might default. Both companies might go bankrupt. So, the bigger company bets with even bigger company etc. What happens is that there might be 7 bets that the 30-40 year olds will live long. If they don't, 7 companies have to pay and 7 companies might file bankruptcy.

Were any of the assumptions wrong? It was a first time event, all those young premium payers dying, but they did die. Would that make all policies bad? No. It does point out that betting that a mortgage will go bad (OKAY CALL IT INSURING AGAINST IT GOING BAD) or any other such bet is fraught with potential disastrous problems. The biggest of these is the fact that there could be 5,6,7 or 100 bets on that 30 year old's life or those mortgages.

With MBS, and the underlying mortgages, the type of Derivative is a CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP. It would be more accurate to it Credit Default Insurance, or (longer name here) "My BET that your loans will not default for which you pay me a lot of money." IT IS A SWAP OF RISK FOR MONEY. Nothing more -nothing less

How did we get here, and where do we go? (understand that there are more than $40 trillion in these Swaps and other Derivatives). The Final installment of the series will focus on how to keep the $40 trillion from wrecking (for real this time) the world economy

Author's Copyright by Richard I. Isacoff, Esq., March 2009

rii@isacofflaw.com

http://www.isacofflaw.com/