"Danger Will Rogers...Danger" *

Steven Pearlstein, a columnist for the Washington Post wrote about the "Global Economy Comes To The End Of Its String" and went on to explain, quite "readably" why it's happening. The column, in the 8/6/11 online edition, discusses the fact that we are cycling back to 2008 levels (maybe), because we never fixed the underlying problems with ours and the global economies. The only issue I would have with the characterization is that we are finding it increasingly difficult to separate our economy from the global economy.

As was written in the prior post here, the U.S. has been spending more than it's been making. We have relied on foreign countries, like China, to continue to buy our Treasury Bonds, which is just lending us money. That's what the whole "Debt-Ceiling" debate was all about. It took Congress 3 months to decide if we would be allowed by law to borrow more so we could keep operating our Country without a DEEP cutback in services, like Defense, Medicaid, Parks, EPA protections, Federal Aviation Admin., and on & on & on.

Brian Wolfman posted a short piece of the article on the Consumer Law & Policy Blog and asks at the end "So, what's the chance that will happen given what we've just seen in Congress?" Here is my response:

"You ask, somewhat rhetorically, about the chances for Congress to adopt policies like those Mr. Pearlstein outlined and accept his analysis of the "how we got here". If you know how to bring back from the un-living (on earth anyway) Sam Rayburn, Tip O'Neill, Dwight Eisenhower, Louis Brandeis, Earl Warren, Hugo Black, Ronald Reagan, and Gerald Ford, we might have a chance. As partisan as some of those folks were, they put the Country first when the chips were down (don't really know what that expression means but...).

The current Congress is so ideologically focused and unyielding in their world view, that they belong back to a time when the "world was flat". Common sense tells them that if you go to a beach and look out to the horizon, you can see that the world is flat. That was the prevailing common sense. Oh, and, of course, from Wasilla, AK you can see Russia (I tried with military issue binoculars, from the highest point in Wasilla, in March of 2010, on a clear day, and could NOT see the "Hammer and Sickle").

We are truly at a turning point for the Country and the world. The EU (European Union) is as divided as our Congress, so they will be no help. At least here, the big issue for BOTH Congressmen and Senators is GETTING RE-ELECTED in the same country. The pandering to lobbyists and ideologues must stop. The hard core Tea Partyists are at least true to their beliefs, but remember the flat world.

The future looks grim. Voters cast out the evil-doers in the mid-terms. The world economic crisis was only in part our fault. We allowed the most selfish politicians and "bankers" to run us into the ground. No regulation, no brakes, no-mind to the constitutional interpretations of the past, and a skilled manipulation of the concepts of a "free-market economy" ruled for 8 years. But, this coincided with Europe deciding to try getting along. No one hired a Cat Herder.

Maybe if we remember Peter Pan's plea that we all believe in Tinker Bell (metaphorically only) our economic system will survive. If it doesn't and we don't begin to rebound quickly, we are facing a future that we have fought 2 world wars, our own revolution, a civil war, and the "baby-boomer wars" for nothing.

*from the CBS Show -"Lost in Space" - fitting!

Author's Copyright by Richard I. Isacoff, Esq., August, 2011
rii@isacofflaw.com
http://www.isacofflaw.com

Brief Recap of Major Financial Issues

There used to be a TV show, weekly, called appropriately "THAT WAS THE WEEK THAT WAS". It provided a satirical review of the weeks happenings - especially politics. Kind of like a fast paced, hit-a-run version of John Stewart. Actually, "The Daily Show" is a modern day iteration. This Is The Month That Was:

FORECLOSURES
1. Foreclosures still moving at a brisk pace. Some slowing but due to paperwork issues. The mortgage servicers, led by the Mortgage Backed Security Investors, want to foreclose, and actually do so, even when they do not have the legal rights. IT GOES LIKE THIS :
a. You get a loan from the "We Saw You Coming Mortgage Company"
b. The mortgage company has already sold the loan to a large bank
c. The holder of the mortgage only (not the note, the I.O.U.) is company called MERS, short for Mortgage Electronic Registration System. This is mortgage industry registry to avoid recording mortgage transfers
d. The loan is "sold" into a Pool of 3000 other loans paying the Bank for its investment in your mortgage. The Bank now has no risk - this explains why no one cared about loan quality and why there were bizarre loan products like the "Pick-A-Payment"

e. The pool is sold as a BOND - just like a corporate bond- where investors buy $10,000 or maybe $1mil of the total which can be $2billion+ The reason to purchase is to get a higher than bank savings account interest return without much risk (good luck!)
f. If a borrower falls behind in payments, the manager of the pool of loans (called the investor) decides whether to modify the loan or not
g. The Fed Gov't set up the Making Home Affordable program to help homeowner get modifications but DID NOT REQUIRE ANY LENDER/INVESTOR MAKE ANY MODIFICATIONS

CONSUMER PROTECTION

1. There was a Consumer Finance Protection Board established so one agency can "ride-herd" as a REGULATOR to be certain that consumers don't get swindled. Here's where that is:

a. The CFPB is to stop "Predatory Lending practices", credit cards that have hidden fees (like the 0% interest for 1 year including balance transfer except for the 4% or 5% fee, not interest on the transfer)-see last posting for full explanation, and excessive fees to Banks for using a debit card.
b. The Republicans in the Senate have vowed to refuse to allow the appointment of ANYONE to the top spot at the CFPB unless the powers are reduced and there is a committee running it

2. Banks are lobbying to reverse the Law that will limit how much they can charge the merchants for each customer use of a debit card. Right now if you buy a $2.00 coffee and "swipe" your debit card to pay for the coffee, the store might get charged $0.40. No wonder prices for small items like coffee and hamburgers are so high

JOBS
1. Jobs are still being created, 50,000 this past month but that is only 1.2% of the unemployed
a. No real manufacturing starts to create jobs
b. Housing market dead - too many foreclosed and repossessed homes to let prices rise so no one can sell, Banks own too many houses, no reason to build a new house hoping someone will buy it
c. Mortgages are extremely difficult to get so even if you want to buy, who will lend you the money. No building-No Jobs.
d. Outsourcing to other countries bigger than ever

ECONOMY

1. Economy is not defined as how much we are earning or how much things cost or how confident consumers/businesses are feeling

a. Economy is the system to move goods and services. Essentially how will supply and demand is working
b. Economics is the study of the economy - not a science and there are as many theories as there are people studying the economy, therefore being Economists. So when you hear about "The Top Government Economist said that..." it's just his opinion. It is not a real science. It's a social science based on opinions and theories

2. Our trade imbalance grew. This is the measure of how much we import versus export. We import much more than we export.

a. The trade imbalance affects the value of our Dollar as compared to other countries currency
b. Things got better with Japan because few cars are being imported due to the disasters that hit Japan
c. Things got worse with China - they buy a fraction for us of what we buy from them.

That's just a brief round-up of 4 topics of concern to us all

Oh, I almost forgot - there is the Federal Debt Ceiling -that is the maximum amount the Government can borrow. We will be "MAXED OUT" by August. Raising that limit is also being held-up by Congress. If it doesn't get raised, we end up defaulting on our loans (payment of interest and principal on such things as Treasury Bonds. Then the value of the dollar compared to other currencies will drop by 25%-35% OR MORE immediately. Think things cost are expensive now? How about $7/gallon gas or a $40,000 Base Model Toyota

Author's Copyright by Richard I. Isacoff, Esq, June 2011

rii@isacofflaw.com

http://www.isacofflaw.com/

The Theory of Money - (Part 2 of March 7th Posting)

(From the March 7, 2011 posting for background)

[How much is GOLD worth? Or even more basic, why is gold worth anything? Why does the Pound Sterling or the Euro or the U.S. or Canadian Dollars have value? Only because "we" say so!

The above statement is an over-simplification of a complex, and seldom discussed matter of economics - THE THEORY OF MONEY. Think of this concept: Money, regardless of country, and so-called "precious metals", have value only because the people of the world say they do. In reality, what we call money is a short-hand and efficient method of barter. After all, we use money to get ("buy") something of value from someone else.]

(Now the new information)

If money is worth only what we agree it's worth, then we could declare all money worthless, right? NO! This is because, as mentioned in the March 7th posting, whatever we use to exchange goods and services, without literally trading the bushel of corn for a pair of shoes, or 5 bushels of wheat for one pig, is a shorthand method of keeping track. I want your shoes that you will trade for 1 bushel of corn. I have none but Sally has corn. I just have wheat. Sally will trade her corn for my wheat; I trade her my wheat for her corn and trade with you, giving you my (originally Sally's) corn for your shoes. Now each of the three of us has what we want. I have shoes, you have corn and Sally has wheat.

BUT what if I want your shoes; you want Sally's corn; Sally wants Pete's painting; Pete wants George's work as a plumber; and George wants my wheat. It will all work out but it would take a week just to move goods and perform services, when all I wanted was a pair of shoes. Money, a universally accepted product/commodity/service "stand-in" makes it all very simple. We agree that (1) unit of this thing called "money" will trade-for (is worth) 1/10th bushel of corn, and that (4) units are needed to trade for the shoes, and that one hour of plumbing time will "cost" (5) units, and so on. We have created money as we know it.

Now, just imagine trying to work out the trade value of every good and service we use in this country. How do we establish the price in these units? By agreement. Essentially, we give everything a trade-value of "X" units, just as is shown above. When we are not certain, we guess. If we are right, the trade is completed - 23 units for a set of 4 chairs. If we are wrong, the chairs will be 30 units, or maybe only 21 units. IT'S ALL MADE UP! Until the majority of unit users say NO to the exchange, everything works fine.

Just keep in mind that MONEY IS WORTH WHAT ALL USERS OF THAT KIND OF MONEY AGREE TO. No More, No Less

As we look at financial markets, as we hear about the "strong Yen" or the "weak dollar" or even issues of inflation the explanation gets much more complicated.

Be patient: we will get to it a little at a time!

Author's Copyright by Richard I Isacoff, Esq, March 2011

rii@isacofflaw.com

http://www.isacofflw.com/

How Many Grams of Fat In An Ounce Of Gold?

How much is GOLD worth? Or even more basic, why is gold worth anything? Why does the Pound Sterling or the Euro or the U.S. or Canadian Dollars have value? Only because "we" say so!

The above statement is an over-simplification of a complex, and seldom discussed matter of economics - THE THEORY OF MONEY. Think of this concept: Money, regardless of country, and so-called "precious metals", have value only because the people of the world say they do. In reality, what we call money is a short-hand and efficient method of barter. After all, we use money to get ("buy") something of value from someone else.

There was a time, not all that long ago, when if someone wanted a pair of shoes, that person would trade a cobbler a bushel of corn or wheat or maybe 5 chickens. The person would get new shoes, and the cobbler would eat. Fair trade! At some point, people got tired of carrying bales of hay, sacks of corn, homemade wines/beers to the shoe maker or the dress maker. There was the thought that if there was something everyone wanted, then that item could be used to exchange goods and services. Thus enter GOLD.

Why gold? Don't really know. It can be pretty and it doesn't get corroded or corrode other things so it has use in electrical parts, and jewelry, and it can be pretty but it is prized well beyond its actual use. Here is the point - Assume you are on an island with no food but plenty of gold; gold is everywhere. FOOD is nowhere. Which has more value? Let's go off the island and into many parts of the world where food is scarce, where even gold can't buy food because there isn't any. Which has more value. How much gold would you trade to have enough food?

From the use of GOLD or diamonds or other things found in nature, we created an artificial "product" with which to barter - to exchange goods and services; we call it MONEY. It only has value if a certain number of "money" (dollars, rupees, rubles,euros, pounds etc) will be accepted in exchange for goods, like food. And, the real value is determined by how much food, clothing, steel, etc. each amount of money will "buy" (be accepted for the exchange).

Okay - this is the stuff that will put you to sleep anytime but the point is that, with the current economic situation, the price of GOLD has soared meaning that one ounce of gold will buy more whatevers than it would before the crisis; actually twice as many. Why? Because people want GOLD. Irrationally, there is the thought that gold is inherently valuable - that it is worth a great deal just by being itself.

What if, just what if, we rejected GOLD having a special value; said it was a rock, nothing more. If everyone agreed, then it would become worth no more than a regular old rock you find in the woods or elsewhere on the land or in the sea. GOLD is only valuable because people have decided, without even thinking about it, that GOLD is special; not just pretty, but special.

When the conversation shifts to why the U S Dollar is worth something more than the Crane Mfg paper it's printed on, we enter the world of monetary economics. Here, the value, the amount of corn or wheat or oil a United States Dollar will buy, is actually based on the U.S.'s ability to produce goods, manufacture, assemble, produce metals from raw materials like rocks, make silicon chips for computers from sand. Add to the mix, the country's ability to defend itself and others, the technological abilities of the nation etc. In other words, the total production of the country in an agreed upon period of time.

The only point to carry away from this posting is that "money" has no real value, nor does gold. It is only worth what people say it is. Does that mean that all gold should be discarded - NO! At least not until the world agrees it's just a pretty rock.

More next time.

Author's Copyright by Richard I. Isacoff, Esq, March 2011

rii@isacofflaw.com

http://www.isacofflaw.com/

The Greatest Depression? Ask Rep. Neugebauer (R-TX)

Rep Randy Neugebauer, Chairman, House Financial Services Oversight Subcommittee, said it is time for the government to admit its foreclosure prevention efforts are a failure and should be shut down. The Texas Republican said such programs are counterproductive and are preventing the housing market from bottoming out, which is necessary before recovery can begin. (1/24/2011 from the American Banker)

Now, there is a real solution to the foreclosure crisis! Bite the bullet - displace hundreds of thousands of homeowners, let the inventory of bank-owned properties (OREO) sky-rocket, let the housing market drop bottomless and that will allow us to have an economic recovery. The sad part about Rep. Neugebauer's assertion is that he may be right in the long-term, but at what IMMEDIATE & CURRENT COST!

The program is not working - no news there. Why? Because the government regulators and policy makers do not want to to tackle the "investment banks" and the "investors" in mortgage-backed securities ("MBS")to tell them they WILL modify loans. At this time, no one can order a lender, mortgage servicer, investor, Pool Trustee, or any one else that it/she/he MUST modify a loan.

Everything is voluntary and the decision makers are in a position that they cannot lose. even if the market "bottoms out" as the Rep. from TX suggests it should. The Sponsors of the MBSs and the investment banks that put the packages together and sold them have already been paid or are so high up the MBS hierarchy of payees, that unless the value of every mortgage in the pool of mortgages becomes utterly worthless (no value at all to the houses securing the mortgages which comprise the MBS), THEY WILL GET PAID.

From an "economic" point of view (see the 1/13/11 posting), the Rep. makes sense. From a financial point of view it does not. From a human point of view it would be "The Nightmare from Wall Street". Remember "economics" is the study of an economy which is merely a system to deal with supply and demand. The concepts are simple but the implications are not. This is a case where the theory is great and accurate in its long-term view. But, getting from here (where/when we need modifications and for the Government to help all of us struggle through the mess) to there (where the market, the economy can correct itself) is a 20 year span.

Perhaps the Rep. has not taken into account the mass disruption of the pensions which hold funds that hold mortgage-backed securities. Or maybe he has forgotten that if there is no confidence in the value of the MBS, which is really set by its stability and ability to pay the return it's promised, the value will drop to $0 or something close to it. In reality, the houses that would be lost in foreclosure will retain significant value, even if that is only 20% or 30% of the mortgage balance. When the next generation comes along, it will be able to buy a vacant house for 40 cents on the dollar from what was owed on the mortgage. What will it cost the current homeowners on a nationwide basis?

Factor in those who lose houses to foreclosure and then the rest of the homeowners, from low-income to upper-middle class income, who manage to keep a house now worth half (1/2) of what's owed, and you have a "financial" (not economic") crisis. The economy will have way to much supply, and literally no demand for years.

Recession? Nah, the Greatest Depression

Author's Copyright by Richard I. Isacoff, Esq, January, 2011

rii@isacofflaw.com

http://www.isacofflaw.com/

Economy Getting Better? What Do You Have In Your Wallet?

The latest news and business reports say that "the economy is improving. All economic indicators show..." If that is true, and not just hype, as the commercial for a credit card asks, "What do you have in your wallet?"

How can the jobless rate waiver between 9.8% and 9.5% and there be more than 450 unemployed persons (still receiving unemployment or registering at an unemployment office) for every job opening, if the economy is improving?

Well, WHAT IS THE ECONOMY? What does "THE ECONOMY" mean? The "hard and cold" definition is simply the management of resources of a community, region, country, etc. Put in other terms, it is a system of producing, distributing, and consuming wealth. Perhaps this definition would be better - "economy encompasses everything related to the production and consumption of goods and services in an area" (pick the size -city, state,country,world etc).

Economic purists would probably prefer "the system for the production (or acquisition), and allocation of limited resources". Put simply the Management of "SUPPLY AND DEMAND".

So, when you hear, "the economy is improving", all that means is that the system of managing goods and services, including such items as commodities (wheat, gold, orange crop (really)), "stuff" like cars and their production, houses both new and existing, is getting under control. Supply and demand for whatever is being managed better. There is no one person, nor any government agencies in charge of managing all of that. Entities like the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, Congress, and BUSINESS, each and all control parts of the management.

So, "THE ECONOMY IS IMPROVING" has little immediate change for individuals. "Things" are getting better (managed better) but that has no affect for you or me. Maybe in 5 or 10 or 20 years, but not NOW.

Oh, and "The ECONOMISTS SAY that ..." Who are the ECONOMISTS. They are people or groups of people who study ECONOMICS which is the study of the ECONOMY.

ECONOMICS is a SOCIAL SCIENCE, (not science like chemistry, or physics, or biology) that studies the economy. Adam Smith in his 1776 publication "The Wealth of Nations" described the economy as a self regulating market system that adjusts to fulfill the needs of the populace - from his point of view, LAND, LABOR, and CAPITAL are the three factors/components contributing to a nation's wealth. Because of the competition to use the limited resources of a country/area/town , those with money will buy the resources and use them profitably which will result in a balance of all uses so the owner will get the biggest return. Smith's concept goes on to argue that it is in the owner of the capital to use it for the public good in order to get the best return.

Okay, so the Economy is getting better means that the government has a better understanding of what went wrong and an idea of how to fix it. Fixing it means that a balance will be reached between supply and demand. There will be no glut of houses for sale, nor high unemployment, because there will be a demand for goods and services, because people will be working to provide goods and services. Sounds like a circular argument. It is, but each time you go around, you move up just a little bit.

Look, in simple terms, the "economy" tanked when everyone realized that there was no true value in certain stocks and bonds - that they were being bought and sold based on assumptions that were wrong. In essence, the little boy cried out, "Mommy, the emperor has no clothes". The end of the world? NO! The end of what was thought to be a managed system of supply and demand? YES!

The economy is getting better - government is regaining control over the supply and demand and production and distribution of good and services. It will take time and no one knows how much time.

The question for PEOPLE is not about the economy, it is about "IS MY MONEY SITUATION GETTING BETTER OR WORSE?"

Author's Copyright by Richard I. Isacoff, Esq., January 2011

rii@isacofflaw.com

http://www.isacofflaw.com/