Showing posts with label credit crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label credit crisis. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Better Now Or A Year Ago?


Now that all of the drama of the Goldman Sachs vs Congress (actually Sen. Carl Levin) is over, what did it all mean. More importantly, WHO CARES? (well, I actually do but it's my job to care).

The reality is that regardless of who caused the financial crisis most of us just want to know when it will end and how will we survive until it does. Will knowing what a "Synthetic Derivative" help? NO, and it's not something you add to your cars oil or take out of it for that matter! If the crisis is over, if we have turned the corner on the recession, if the economy is improving, why is the unemployment rate still at record or near record levels, after adjusting for those who have fallen off of the rolls because benefits ran out, and deducting the Census workers?

The answer is easy, well at least explainable, or at a minimum, less confusing than Synthetic Derivatives. The term "Recession" is a technical economic word that rarely intersects everyday life. It deals with the number of consecutive calendar quarters that the "gross domestic product' declines. And when most TV types discuss the economy getting better they are really talking about the stock market, which a world unto itself.

For real people - are you better or worse off financially than you were 1 year ago? That's far from scientific and can be misleading, but it isn't a bad way to gauge the problem.

Foreclosures are still way up. April's figures showed fewer foreclosure sales but more actual cases where the lender has actually taken possession of the properties it foreclosed against months ago. And, the number of borrowers in default is not leveling yet. And the modification programs are still not really working. And people have so little left from their paychecks that they cannot afford to file bankruptcy using a lawyer, or even a document preparer (which is worse than filing themselves anyway).

In my office, we are taking payments for months from clients who want the expertise of a lawyer but can only pay $50 or $100 per month. The extra part-time job is gone; the overtime hours aren't available. Money is tight.

HOWEVER, at this point it doesn't appear that "the economy" will get any worse. This may not help every individual but it is an indication that we may have bottomed. How long we stay down is any one's guess.

Synthetic Derivatives? Think of a fantasy sports league based on a fantasy sports league, based on a real sports league! - (Next time I will try to explain in fewer than 5000 words)

Author's Copyright by Richard I. Isacoff, Esq, May 2010
rii@isacofflaw.com
http://www.isacofflaw.com/

Sunday, December 27, 2009

Foreclosures, Jobs, Bank Mergers, & What Retirement ?




As we approach the end of the year there are a number if issues we should keep in mind. All are important but at differing levels depending on our own circumstances

1. The Foreclosure Crisis is far from over. There are currently approximately 3.5 million homes in some stage of foreclosure. It is projected that 2010 will see another 3 million enter foreclosure (that's 6.5 million without any further economic deterioration). Keep in mind that this does not include mortgages in default, by even as much as 90 days, that have not been moved to the "F" status by the lender.

The Making Home Affordable Program ("MHA") is broken, probably beyond repair. Very few (less than 1% of the loans in the Trial Modification period) have made it to a permanent modification. Lenders are blaming borrowers for not sending in documents timely or for not making payments within the successive 30 day periods. True, the are a certain number of borrowers who will not be able to keep their homes because they could never have afforded it, or have had a life altering experience from which they cannot recover.

BUT, I have had to submit documents for 40% of my clients, for whom I am working the MHA program, 2, 3, and even 4 times; and sometimes Borrowers are promised coupons for payments, never get them, make a payment late and are disqualified from the program - this again from my personal experience as an attorney with knowledge of the MHA program, bankruptcy, mortgages, real estate conveyancing, finance and financial planning, money management, banking and economics.

2. Un-Employment and Under-Employment exceeds 14%. Add to that sobering figure the numbers of jobless who no longer have unemployment benefits and who have given up registering for jobs at the local State Agency, and we move to the 18%-20% range or 1 in 5 or 6 people in the eligible labor force. This does not help the foreclosure problem - it's hard to pay for your house with no job, or with receiving a cut in hours by 25%, or by getting a "new" job paying $11/hour instead of the $18/hr in the job just lost.

Un/under-employment doesn't help consumer spending either. People are spending less, especially for true discretionary items, like the new car, new television, new washing machine, extra pair of shoes, and eating out. That is bad for business profits which is bad for job creation or just job market stability. And it is not just the big stores that are suffering; in fact, they can weather the storm better than the mom and pop stores and small businesses nationwide. All of this leads to a further erosion in jobs and then another round of foreclosures, and then another bank failure and on and on.

3. In a mere 15 months there has been such a massive consolidation in the Banking and Finance sectors that 3 years ago the Justice Department would have been bringing anti-trust actions daily (yes, that is hyperbole but barely). How has this hurt? Try to get a loan from any non-local bank, especially if you have average credit individually or are a small business with no access to equity markets (selling stock for example) or public debt offerings (like corporate bonds).

So now we have businesses, under the gun because of a downturn in business which is caused by un/under-employment, which cannot get money to stay in business waiting for the economy to turn positive - thus another business failure. Or we have an individual who cannot convince his/her lender to modify a loan or refinance it (no cash out at closing, just a lower interest rate) because the bank finds the Borrower's credit does not meet the lender's NEW credit criteria.
Guess what? Another foreclosure! Oh, and by the way, each foreclosure tends to lower the values of homes around the foreclosed property, so equity evaporates making it impossible for the under-employed with an above-average but not stellar credit score to refinance because the loan-to-value ratio (amount of loan divided into the value of the house) is too high (greater then 70-80%).

4. The "golden years" of retirement? They may be gone for an entire generation who had investments in 401k plans, IRAs, and the stock market generally. Sure the markets are up in the sense that the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P indices are up from their lows, but have average people recovered their losses. Basically NO! When we hear "The stock market is up 24% from a year ago" (still 30+% below where it was before the crash) that means that the securities traders are making money and some large corporations are as well. Sure, some individuals' portfolios have gained back part of the loss but recovered? NO! And we still do not know about Social Security, or health care, or ....

Further, as discussed on NPR's show "Marketplace Money" this morning by Knight Kiplinger, editor-in-chief of one of the most respected financial publications, there is a new reality: People cannot depend on the equity in their homes for part of their retirement funding. His comments went on to state that "... now housing has returned to its rightful place, as a place you live. It is shelter; it is not an investment".

This is a major change in approach from what had been a belief held for decades by homeowners, and was part of the advice given by investment counselors/financial planners to their customers/clients. It went something like this: "With the yearly appreciation on your house being 5%, in 14 1/2 years the value will have doubled and the mortgage will be paid down by one-half, so you'll have plenty of equity when you sell to buy that nice condo by the beach".

Now we cannot plan to use the house we live in for retirement money - after 25 years and 5 refinances, but never beyond 80% of the house's value, we will be lucky to have the funds to pay off the then existing mortgage and have a few dollars left for? Certainly not the condo on the beach. Is that what has happened in the housing market and if so, what is being done to stop the further erosion of value, goes down every time there is a foreclosure in the area of your home.

We go back to the Mortgage meltdown, the continuing high un/under- employment, the rampant crimes committed by Wall Street mortgage securitizers, and our own use of our homes as the means to get money for vacations, a new car, a new porch or pool etc. When you get a Home Equity Line Of Credit ("HELOC") and it comes with a debit card to make using the credit line easier, we should have known something was not right. Paying for a cup of coffee with your house's equity? Maybe not that bad but...

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

More crucial is our attitude, the way we all believe this will turn out. There is growing despair among those hit hardest - those who have lost jobs and those who are losing homes. EMPLOYMENT is perhaps the biggest obstacle to overcome. If people are gainfully employed they can begin to recapture their lives. Then and only then there is the potential to save the home, or not worry about whether the heating bill should be paid or the electric bill; and the car payment?

After a sign that the job scene is getting better, people NEED to see and believe that the government is taking real steps to stop foreclosures. Earlier posts have discussed some of the ways the loans which have become securitized can be modified. That said, our current financial services (banking, brokerage, insurance) regulators like FDIC, Federal Reserve, Treasury Department must take action to force the lenders to modify those loans that already qualify for the MHA program. Lost documents, unreasonable deadlines given to borrowers, no clear instructions on where to send payments, an endless loop of telephone prompts without human intervention for 30-45 minutes, all have to stop.

Maybe the outcome of the foreclosures will be to create jobs with the companies that service the loans, inspect the properties, go to Court to evict you, and clean up the property to get the house ready for sale.

Prognosis? the patient, us, will live but what will be the quality of life?

Author's Copyright by Richard I. Isacoff, Esq, December 2009

http://www.isacofflaw.com/
rii@isacofflaw.com

Monday, July 27, 2009

Credit Card Rules - Explained (sort of). What to Do Until Then

On June 11, 2009, I wrote extensively about the new credit card laws - the ones that do us no good at the moment but might as the varied effective dates arrive.

Attached/Linked title of this posting, and again at the end of this entry, is a video that goes through the major points of the new rules.

None of the rules will erase any debt that has already been incurred, regardless of how unfair the borrower believes the debt to be. Interest rates jumping to 30% , late fees of $39 on a balance of $100 with a report of late payments (over 30 days) to the credit agencies, with, of course the accompanying rate increase, and perhaps the most difficult for regular card users, the arbitrary elimination of the available credit/decrease in credit line, without warning or apparent reason.

The 2 real banks, and the 1 "investment bank" (see last post for that definition) that had record profits, Bank of America, CitiBank/CitiGroup, and Goldman Sachs respectively, are the worst offenders. Yesterday, in the Sunday edition of the New York Times, there was a story by David Streitfeld dealing with Bank of America specifically, but the industry in general. In it he describes a woman who could not keep up with the higher and higher interest rates being charged. After pleading with Bank of America to lower the interest rate on her account without success, she just stopped paying her monthly bill. A wise decision? - probably not! - except in this case it was born out of desperation. The result: Bank of America called her with "deals" so she could afford her payments.

Look at the video - read the article in the Times and think about your position. Are you able to go without Credit Cards? Can you pay the minimum payments PLUS 1% of the balance owed to lower the principal and actually pay down the debt? If you can, then you may be able to get out of debt.

Factor in all of your debt - especially the credit cards. IMPORTANT!! - Put together an accurate list of your regular monthly living expenses. Include such things as cigarettes (if you smoke), a reasonable amount for food, eating out if it's unavoidable, enough for gasoline and a monthly budget for car repairs (during the entire year), all of your insurances, clothing (include shoes and underwear), income taxes expected to be paid over and above payroll deductions, student loans, cell phone, cable, Internet, utilities, rent/mortgage, and everything else that you really need to spend or save for each and every month. After all of that, can you pay the minimum PLUS at least 1% of the outstanding balance on all debts, whether each is a credit card, a personal loan from CitiFinancial/HFC,HSBC,Beneficial, or from anywhere else.

If after doing that budget exercise you can make the payments GREAT!! Do not be late on one payment or your plan might become dust in the wind. BUT try. If you cannot, seek financial counseling - not from a TV advertiser promising to reduce your debt to "pennies on the dollar" for a mere $XXXX.XX per month and a non-refundable processing fee of $XXX.XX

Author's Copyright by Richard I. Isacoff, Esq, July 2009
http://www.isacofflaw.com/
rii@isacofflaw.com

http://video.nytimes.com/video/2009/05/19/your-money/1194840368370/guide-to-new-credit-card-rules.html

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Credit Cards and Credit Crunch - the Other Monster Under the Bed

It is official - credit card default rates are higher, as much as 30% higher than last year, and higher than the experts thought they would be. Okay, how much of an expert did you have to be to know that. All you need to have, to know the defaults are getting worse, is a CREDIT CARD, or two or three or four or...

What are the reasons? That may require an expert. Could it be the loss of 4 million jobs, or the increase in interest rates even when the Banks are paying next to nothing for the money they are lending, or people using credit cards just to buy food and pay for heat until the cards max out, or homeowners making the last few mortgage payments they will be able to make with the credit cards, or is it just cardholders being irresponsible and using the cards to pay for filing bankruptcy?

It has been reported that the total outstanding amount of credit outstanding for credit cards, used or unused credit, will decrease by 50% or $2 trillion by 2011. Card companies are cancelling cards, jumping up rates (see earlier post), and telling card holders that the cards will not be renewed. Okay, let's just fold up our tents and go home. These are the same financial institutions that got bailed out again, today, by the Treasury. The thanks?

Advice for those of us who will need or think we will need to use revolving credit (credit cards) goes something like this.

1 Pay down or even off the cards that are charging you the highest rate.

2. DO NOT be late on any card payment - the issuer can cancel your card or increase the rate.

3. Do not apply for any new cards - the applications you make will not only affect your credit score but existing card issuers might look at this act as a need for more credit, and they are afraid you will not be able to pay

4. Review your credit reports carefully to be certain only real credit is reported, that only your debts are shown, and that closed accounts are reported properly. Go to the web site http://www.annualcreditreport.com/ and order one report from each of the 3 bureaus - Experian, Equifax, Transunion. Be sure you do not ask for your score - it will cost you to get that,while the report itself is free. Do get fooled by other sites like freecreditreport.com as you will probably end up paying for something

5. Decide if you really need credit cards, beyond a small limit card for emergencies. Try living without them now because you might not have them later anyway.

6. DO NOT TAKE A HOME EQUITY LOAN TO PAY OFF CREDIT CARDS. You are changing unsecured debt into secured debt, and the security is your home.

7. See a credit counseling service or a good debt counselor to help you determine the amount of credit you will need month to month. Even if the lesson costs $250, it is far less than the interest on even a modest balance when the rate is 30%.

Is there an end in sight to the craziness? No! Maybe a halfway point? Yes

Author's Copyright by Richard I. Isacoff, Esq., March 2009

http://www.isacofflaw.com/
rii@isacofflaw.com

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Lessons Not Learned

The lessons our financial leaders should have learned from the "mortgage crisis" but did not, show how slow we are as an economic structure to react by anticipatory behavior. It does matter whether the financial markets overheated because of a giant Ponzi scheme hundreds of times the size of Madoff's, unknowingly and unwittingly perpetrated by its very victims, or due to a lack of regulation, or having as a cause the unbridled greed of the now oft ill thought of "Wallstreeters". Of course, one could also point to the failure of the economists to predict and discern the emerging pattern which ended in an implosion in the world of imaginary numbers - not the type to which mathematicians refer, but to the type hedge fund managers, speculative investors, commodities traders, bankers needing to satisfy stockholders, and just every day people with 401k plans, used as their calculus.

The concern we should all have is not only to identify when the recession began and when the regulators should have stepped-in, but rather how to see the next "black hole" which will threaten the fabric of our financial world. We have turned our telescopes on the past; we should also look at the present to see the future. Easy mortgages were the symptom of the securitization flu. The effect of the burst of mortgage-backed securities and credit default swaps et al has been a shut-down of credit: that will be the killer.

As the Wall Street Journal pointed out, the next credit crunch will be credit cards and similar smaller, but just as widely used lines of credit like over-draft lines, HELOCS (home equity lines), the ubiquitous 90 day note, etc. These means of keeping consumers and small businesses running when cash is tight, are being shut down. Jobs are being lost and housing defaults are rising which are causing more lines to be closed or limited as a pre-emptive strike against larger losses. Yet there is no regulatory concern about there being no credit available to "just ordinary people" and "just ordinary small business".

Understandably, the emphasis is on saving the patient - the hell with a few limbs: perhaps a more cogent analogy however would be that the sacrifice of the few to save the many is okay, not necessary but OKAY. It's great if you are not one of the few. The "few" here are consumers - both businesses and individuals. If there is no credit, and jobs are being lost, people will horde. If there is hoarding, small businesses will fail, which will cause larger businesses to fail...

The same Banks that are taking billions to "stimulate" the economy are limiting credit to people and small businesses. In fact, they are withdrawing credit and calling loans, reminiscent of the late 80s & early 90s. Further, interest rates are sky-rocketing creating spreads that loan sharks would pay ½ of their "vig" to get. Borrow from the Fed/Treasury at 0% or maybe 0% plus 25 basis points and lend it out at prime plus 18.99%. Default rates are still up into the 30% range. Worse is that people will use every last dollar of credit, creating huge defaults, which the industry can predict but "Who cares? We'll just securitize it and sell 'em"

[NOTE: The following link will bring the reader to Wharton School of Business' website where a recap of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernecke's recent speech is contained] http://knowledgetoday.wharton.upenn.edu/2009/03/changing-the-rules-.html

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Credit Card Companies - Legal Loan Sharking?

The last post discussed the Debt Collection practices of many credit card companies. As the economy tightens even more, many people will turn to their credit cards as a last resort to buy necessities, like food, medicine, and gasoline (to get to work if they still have jobs). An earlier post discussed the companies raising interest rates for no other reason than they can.

The majority of the card companies are owned by banks In some cases these are the same banks which are trying to recover losses incurred in bad loans; often, improper mortgage lending practice results. So, "Let it go forth throughout the land that WE, who can offer 0% financing and raise the rate the next day, have determined that NOW is the time to strike. The masses need us more than ever and we can cash-in".

LOSE HERE, MAKE IT UP THERE!

Cynical - no - realistic. I was in the business and know how it used to work. Consequently, I understand all to well the need for a profitable business line in the Bank to offset losses. Citibank, as an example, has let business many customers know, that at the expiration of the current card, the interest rate will go to the prime rate (the rate the best businesses get from banks) PLUS 18.99%. Even now, with the prime rate extremely low, the effective interest factor on one of those business cards would be 22.24%. And that is for business which pay every month, and pay more than the minimum. Others are being told that they are no longer welcome, and to find another lender.

What makes this difficult is that the same approach is being taken in the retail side, with ordinary people who pay every month, with maybe a late payment (5-10 days) once in a while. They get charged a late fee of $29-$39 depending on the card, and then, if they are late at all, the card issuer raises the rate to the "Default Rate" which is between 24.99% and 31.99%. Further, in all of the card agreements the issuers state that they have the right to raise the rate to the Default Rate if, in the opinion of the issuer, the card holder has a change in financial circumstances. This translates to "if you are late on any card, even once, we can jump your rate from 6.99% to the Default Rate. The term for this provision and practice is the "Universal Default Provision".

Delinquencies are rising quickly, not because people do not want to pay, but because of a late payment the interest rate has jumped 400%, and the card holder can no longer make even the minimum payment. If he/she has more than one card, the effect is multiplied by the number of cards. Now come the collectors!

COLLECTORS - THEY DEMAND THE 30 PIECES OF SILVER - OR ELSE!

Most collectors receive a commission on what they collect. Some collectors are paid strictly on a commission basis. To make a living, the collectors will lie, insult, threaten, call family members, neighbors, ask for post-dated checks, and do many of the things that are illegal under federal or state laws, or both. (see the post dated February 8, 2009 for details).

If you get behind and the calls start "when will you be sending in you payment? If I don't get it by then I will repossess your dentures", do not panic. Keep track of who call, when the call takes place, and the basic content of the call. Again, please refer the the Feb. 8th posting for details.

Try to determine if you can enter a payment arrangement, not with an individual creditor if you have multiple cards, but with all of them. Contact "Consumer Credit Counseling Services", or "Money Management International". They are the only 2 true non-profit organizations that have good relationships with most card issuers and which charge a nominal fee for services. They DO NOT charge a large up-front fee. Run from places that do.

AGAIN, E-MAIL OR CALL ME IF YOU HAVE SPECIFIC QUESTIONS AND NEED HELP.

Author's Copyright by Richard I. Isacoff, Esq, February, 2009

http://www.isacofflaw.com/
rii@isacofflaw.com

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Foreclosures Continue

FORECLOSURE - TARP - BAILOUT - MORTGAGE CRISIS - CREDIT CRISIS - PAULSON

Secretary of the Treasury Paulson has informed Congress that the second half of the $700 billion bailout money has to be released for use NOW, because the first $350 billion has been used, none to help homeowners in foreclosure. More outrageous is that none of the remaining funds are being set aside to stop lenders from taking borrowers homes.

The pace of foreclosure sales is going to accelerate after the 1st of the year; the mortatoriums put in place by many states will be expiring, letting the Mortgage Servicers move against delinquent borrowers. Neither Congress nor the Treasury, which controls the TARP money (bailout), is taking any action to save homes. Despite warnings, from economists, the FDIC, housing industry experts, and investment market experts, that the credit crisis and economy's crisis will not abate until the housing issues are addressed, the present Administration and those entrusted to fix the problem have chosen to continue on the course of action initally taken -money to financial industry entities.

There is a logic behind this approach in theory, but reality has shown it not to work. Congress thought that by giving money to financial institutions there would be a "trickle down" to homeowners; that banks would lend money to individuals, enact loan modifications to save homes, and generally ease credit (the easing of credit to be addressed in a later post). Instead, money is being hoarded by the banks which are recieving the funds. They are solidifying their balance sheets, increasing their reserve of cash, but not lending, especially not lending to homeowners for loan modifications.

When this matter is brought up, the near unanimous response is " we cannot modify loans because there are no loans, just securities, and the investors will not permit modifications". Why is Congress and the Treasury silent on this issue. The "problem" can be fixed but not without political fallout. Would there be isues with the investment community, sure, but any dislocations are minimal compared to the downward spiral we are going to continue to endure if the housing crisis is not fixed.

As we consider why our friends, neighbors, and we lose our houses, we must put pressure on the Treasury and Congress to stop the financial insanity of allowing more and more homes to be sold at foreclosures, ensuring losses to the lenders, or investors, and increasing the glut of homes for sale, thereby driving down prices further, forcing more institutuions to need bailout money.

Putting aside politics and government inaction, the next installment will deal with credit and how to save your home.

Author's Copyright by Richard I. Isacoff, Esq - December 2008

http://www.isacofflaw.com/





Sunday, November 23, 2008

Tinkerbell, Where Are You?

CREDIT CRISIS - MORTGAGE BAILOUT - TOXIC ASSETS - CREDIT CARDS


I had planned to move full force into the new tactics by the Credit Card Industry to help it even out its, and its parent companies', losses. Unfortunately, we are coming face to face with the reality of the current crisis, and why it just will not stop generating scary headlines; the kind that send financial markets, stocks, bonds, entire businesses, and through job losses the public in general into a tailspin.

This weekend CitiCorp, the parent of CitiBank, CitiResidential Mortgage, and Citi this and Citi that, (when combined they do business in 100 countries, and employ 375,000 worldwide), was deemed to be on the edge and in need of a massive infusion of government money or some other type of intervention. It seems that what was touted as a failure of the residential mortgage backed securities ("MBS") market, has been disclosed to be a breakdown of all types of Pooled Loans. You may read about derivatives such as CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations), and Credit Default Swaps. (Derivatives are just a name for products that allow investments in loans and other types of financial transactions, by buying not the loan, but the right to share in the profits from the interest earned. Of course the idea is that the loan or transaction is secured by collateral, not unlike the arrangement in a simple home mortgage.)

With the second or third largest banking organization in the country in trouble, everyone who already hasn't, loses faith in the underlying assumption that his/her investment, assets, have any value: THERE IS A FURTHER EROSION OF CONFIDENCE. Once the spiral downward began, and the Government did not prevent it from accelerating (by saving Lehman Bros. with their portfolio of MBS and other derivatives), we had the IndyMacBank takeover by FDIC, because of a run on the bank (see earlier posts), and here we are.

What we have found out about the CitiCorp fall is that through its multiple entities, the organization had, at risk, $2 trillion, much of it being "off the books". The risk was partially in MBS but only t relatively small percentage when looking at the entire picture. A view develops that might explain why the Mortgage Backed Securities issue created an immediate firestorm. Financial institutions like Citi, JPMorganChase, and Bank of America had invested enormous sums in high yield, high risk investments. Not only did they have MBS, but they were holding all nature of derivatives, especially credit default swaps.

This was essentially a bet that there would be defaults in loans, and therefore the bank had to hedge its bets. In essence, bet against itself, with other institutions buying the investments derived from the loans made by the bank. It was selling part of each loan in a portfolio, with the Seller protecting itself by sharing the risk, and the buyer trying to out-guess the Seller, paying a discounted price for what might turn out to be a perfectly solid loan. This was not done loan by loan, but by billions of dollars worth of pieces of loans, all at once.

As it turned out, when the spiral down began, even good loans turned bad because businesses, which had been solid, began losing orders, and as credit became almost non-existent with no one knowing who would be available tomorrow to pay back a loan taken today, the speed increased until it over-powered all reason. Panic set in, and while the panic has subsided, the anxiety has not. Just as the run on the bank (see earlier posts) was and remains due to a lack of confidence in the system rather than a failure of the system, the market plunge was due to everyone trying to sell "bad" stocks all at the same time. Was there a reason for concern? YES. Panic? NO.

WE NEED THE TINKERBELL PROJECT. Remember in Peter Pan, when Tinkerbell was weak and in danger of dying, and Peter asked everyone to believe in Tink, and to say so out loud so Tink would know that everyone believed, and she would live? Well, we need to believe in the system. Is it flawed? YES. Dead? NO. Will we recover- certainly, but the price will have been steep. Tens of thousands of jobs lost, companies forced into liquidation because no one wanted its stock, pension and other retirement plans devastated by securities losses (remember the MBS issue).

Interestingly, those who were the first to stop believing were the biggest losers (financially), including many of the largest investment houses and banks in the Country. The rest of us were dragged along for the ride.

When the system stops believing in itself, when the so-called market makers and money brokers lose confidence and bet against themselves and others of their kind, panic will inevitably start. This has been the worst realization of that fact since the Depression. Perhaps, and hopefully, the worst is over. Just keep repeating "I DO BELIEVE, I DO BELIEVE, I DO BELIEVE..."


Author's Copyright by Richard I. Isacoff, Esq., November 2008

http://www.isacofflaw.com/