We Got A Credit Line Increase

The Country is Saved. We Won't Default. We Won't Need the EU to Bail US Out! Hooray!!!

As I noted in a Tweet, if the U.S. defaulted and ended up in Bankruptcy, who would be the Trustee, the guardian of creditors like China? Luxembourg???

The entire situation is ridiculous. But, it wasn't so far-fetched (a default). Everyone was buying gold and platinum and silver and... As posted here earlier "How Many Grams of Fat Are There In An Ounce of Gold?", the idea being that gold is only worth what someone will trade for it. Well, we will not have to worry about that anymore. The Congress, meaning the Democrats, Republicans, and Tea Partyists, in both the House of Representatives and in the Senate, and the President have come up with the master-plan to avoid not being able to borrow. The amount the United States can borrow will be increased.

Foolish as it appeared (because of all of the 2012 election campaigning and "holier than thou" Tea Party drinkers; I mean why have a Tea Party and drink coffee? But they did forget the crumpets!), there was exposed a huge problem with our financial system.

Some basics and answers to questions:

1. How could we run out of money to pay bills? Well, we already have. We have used the equivalent of an home equity loan to get money for all of our annual needs. The difference is that we "sell" Treasury Bonds. That is a nice way of stating that we will agree to pay "X"% interest if someone/country lends us money. Granted the amounts are larger than you would need for siding on your house, but the concept is identical. The "Treasury Bonds" that you hear/read about are nothing more than IOUs given to whoever buys the bond.

2. What is the Debt Ceiling and how high is it. It is $14.7 trillion; that is $14,700,000,000,000. It is the amount the Country is allowed to "borrow" from other countries and "all of us". It is a constitutional matter. The Congress has to agree on the amount and then get the President's approval for the MAXIMUM amount of our loans. Congress is acting like a Bank's Loan Committee deciding whether the Bank's Customer (the Country) can repay it's loan.

Were did all of the money go? No one knows for sure and no one, even the GAO (General Accounting Office) can trace it. But we know that we spent money on several wars (2 still on-going); we STOPPED a world-wide depression by enacting the "Stimulus" packages; our States, cities and towns had their tax revenue supplemented by some of that $14.7T for schools, bridges, roads, housing (especially for the elderly); the world wide stock and securities markets did not crash because we paid to offset losses -AIG, Lehman, Ford, Chrysler, GM et al.

IN REALITY, WE SPENT MORE THAN WE EARNED. Tax revenues were too low, the wars were/still are sooo expensive, and we have been spending like we could just print more money (oops, we can and did!)

3. What is the "Deficit" - over-simplified but not by much - just as in any household, or business, the deficit is the NEGATIVE difference between what we spend and what we earn. The trade deficit is a bit different - that is the NEGATIVE difference between what we sell to foreign countries and what we buy from them. For a long time we have bought more than we have sold. WE ARE A NATION OF CONSUMERS.

Coupled with our penchant for buying is the fact that our "DOLLAR" has been strong for a long time in comparison to other countries' money. Simpler - our dollar was based on a stronger economy; more output and capability of manufacturing, inventing, building more than nearly all other countries. We were perceived as having the ability to produce 10, 15, 20, 50% MORE IF WE WANTED TO, AT ANY TIME - like right after the start of WWII. Doesn't do much good if no one is buying!

4. Why did it take so long to set a new limit? POLITICS - RE-ELECTION in 2012. That simple? YES. That doesn't mean that some of the 535 people in Congress did not really believe that our "bill" to others will cause the ruination of the Country. It could, but most likely won't. As these things are measured, we have a bill that is 62% of our Annual GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(GDP). That means that we OWE 2/3 of our county's TOTAL output of goods and services for a year.

Just think about paying 62% of your net/take home income for loans. That doesn't take into account food, utilities, cable, gasoline etc - all of the things that are monthly or annual expenses. For the Country, it's like only having 1/3 of the total amount the United States collects, for the payment of Medicaid, Food Stamps, Unemployment, Military pay, other government employees' pay, expenses for things like the Gulp/BP clean-up, and all other programs big and small.

Maybe now our elected officials can get back to business of running the Country - maybe they need a lesson in accounting - Remember Debits on the Left, Credits on the Right. Debits by the Window, Credits by the Door (from Accounting 101). OR we could buy 535 calculators and copies of Quicken

Author's Copyright by Richard I Isacoff, Esq, August 2011

rii@isacofflaw.com
http://www.isacofflaw.com

The Debt Ceiling: What Is It (and why do we care)?

As Congress argues over what to argue about, they are avoiding dealing with THE major financial issue that needs to be resolved now - not in 15 or 20 years. The Federal Debt ceiling, the total amount of money the Country is allowed to borrow as authorized by Congress. Currently it is $14.3 TRILLION and analysts predict that we have until July, at the latest, before we are MAXED OUT.

I use the term "Maxed Out" because it is a concept with which most consumers have dealt. Well, perhaps not with that much money, but the financial reality is the same: No More Available Credit. In consumer circles it happens when your no longer have any available credit on any credit card to make payments on the other credit cards. In Nations' budgets, at least where there is a body that manages finances, countries sell bonds - here, most commonly Treasury Bonds.

Buyers of these bonds are promised, by the Government, a certain rate of interest and payments at certain dates. Well, where the issuing country has more debt that cash coming in (taxes, tariffs, fees, leases, sales of rights to drill/mine/grab oil etc), that country has to sell more bonds to pay the interest owed on the earlier ones which were issued. Striking similarity to the credit card example above; borrowing to pay interest on borrowing.

Here is the difficult part - Congress has to approve additional borrowing - borrowing beyond that which they approved in the last round of borrowing authorizations. If we do not borrow more and cannot pay the interest when it becomes due and we default/fail to pay, the world economy will go into a tailspin. We have been the single country that the world turns to for stability - yes, even after the 2008 meltdown. If we default, the 2008 to present recession will seem like the "good old days" (why were any old days good?).

The issue before Congress, which the Federal Reserve and Treasury have to explain to them, is that we need to borrow more - a lot more; and, the lack of a decision on this matter is already starting to enter the "markets". There is no question that $14.3 Trillion is an overwhelming figure but when measured against the potential growth in our economy and growth of the country, it becomes manageable over time if we avoid spending too much more than we earn. Just like any household budget.

Unfortunately, one party wants to show the other that it stands for "deficit reduction" and will slash spending to fix the problem fast. The other party wants to fix it slower and not slash as much for fear of stopping the "recovery" and growth of the economy. Too many budget cuts and reductions in spending will leave the country with a more dismal future with regards to medical insurance, education, roads, etc. AND MIGHT STOP ECONOMIC GROWTH. Not beginning to balance the budget and to lessen the borrowing will put the country in a hole from which Alice (the Wonderland/Looking Glass Alice) couldn't get out.

We might wish to believe that Congress will compromise in time and everything will be fine, just as before. Maybe but maybe not. Members of both Houses are so locked into the mindset that compromise means the "other guy" won and that we must stand true to our core beliefs (pullease), that they might wait too long. Not to the point where we default, but to the brink where other countries and industry thinks we might actually default THIS TIME.

Jobs -gone. Savings - gone. Inflation or deflation - huge. Depression - there won't be enough business left to employ anyone. Gold (why I do not grasp) - to Jupiter We won't be able to borrow - sell bonds. There will be no lending going on in this country (or most others). Companies will just close their doors. No one will be able to buy anything not made here because our dollar won't be worth anything anywhere.

Why do we play the game? To get re-elected? Or to fix a problem, that took 40 years to create, in 12 months? To be sure that whoever is running a failed country is of the correct ideology? Well - you get the idea!!

Author's Copyright by Richard I. Isacoff, Esq., April, 2011

rii@isacofflaw.com
http://www.isacofflaw.com
Twitter: @riisacoff